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Texas A&M vs. Missouri - October 14th, 2:30 PM (ABC) @ Kyle Field The word balance frequently pops up when talking about Texas A&M's offense, and rightfully so...The Aggies are one of only four teams nationally who have rushed and passed for over 200 yards per game. Those teams - A&M, Clemson, Nebraska and Louisville - are a combined 20-3 on the season. Balance is a good thing. When researching Missouri, that very same word comes to mind, but in a slightly different sense....The Tigers, across the board, possess talent and ability at just about every position. Listed no higher than 39th in any of the major offensive and defensive categories, MU is one of only two teams nationally - the other being Clemson - to have both its offense and defense ranked in the top 15. Led by an undersized but extremely talented Texan from Soutlake Carroll - 6' 0" 200 pound QB Chase Daniel - the Missouri offense is not only balanced, but explosive. Daniel made his first career start in game 1 against Murray State a memorable one - completing 23-of-32 passes for 320 yards and an MU single-game record 5 touchdown passes. Ranked 15th (3rd Big 12) in total offense, the Tigers can come at you from just about every angle. On the other side of the ball, Missouri is currently 11th nationally (2nd Big 12) and just as potent. Led by another undersized Texan from Denton Ryan - 6' 4" 230 pound DE Brian "Smitty" Smith - MU possess a tremendous amount of speed and game-changing athletic ability. Smith is MU's all-time sack leader (Big 12 #2 behind Texas Tech's Aaron Hunt) with 31.5 career sacks. And it doesn't stop there... In addition to the two stars, the 19th ranked (AP) Tigers boast an experienced offensive line; a pair of talented TE's; a big, strong and very capable group of receivers; a running back - Tony Temple - who averages 93.83 yards per game; a defensive line that not only stuffs the run, but pressures the passer and creates turnovers; and an extremely active set of linebackers led by yet another Texan - Cypress Springs' Marcus Bacon. The Aggies lead the all-time series 6-2 (2-2 since the formation of the Big12), but Missouri has finished on top in each of the last two games, claiming a 33-27 double overtime win on their last trip to College Station in 2002. The Aggies, however, have won 3 of the last 4 games at Kyle Field, including a 73-0 thrashing of the Tigers in 1993. So, who wins Saturday? When the Tigers have the ball: Missouri, with the 15th ranked offense in the country, is 29th in passing and 25th in rushing. Yep, that's balance. In many ways the Tigers resemble A&M; a young and inexperienced quarterback with loads of potential; a junior-senior offensive line with many career starts to their credit; tight-ends and wide receivers that may not be the center of attention, but who are capable of taking over the game and exploiting the opponent; and a solid running back. The name that sticks out is Daniel, and you might think that Mizzou prefers to throw because of that, but they're basically split right down the middle - 241 rushing attempts in 446 total plays (54% run). Just like last week, A&M must stop the run first. As a point of reference, the two previous A&M/Missouri games had the Tigers dominating the run game. In the 2002 at Kyle Field, the Tigers ran the ball a whopping 63 times (88 total plays) for 259 yards. And in the 2003 game at Columbia, the Tigers gained 362 yards on the ground in 48 attempts (68 total). That's about a 70% run to pass ratio. Before you ask, yes, different teams -- but the same coach. Considering this game is on the road and that Daniel is still relatively inexperienced, I'd think that Missouri would want to try and achieve at least a 60% run to pass ratio in contrast to the 54% on the year. In an ideal world, however, I'm sure that coach Gary Pinkel and staff would prefer the output resemble the 70% number in last two games against Aggies, both Missouri wins. The A&M defense seems to be gaining in confidence and regaining some of its old swagger. This is the perfect game to continue on that path and prove they're officially back. Advantage EVEN Key Match-ups: A&M defensive ends Michael Bennett and Chris Harrington against Missouri offensive tackles Joel Clinger and Tyler Luellen; A&M DT Red Bryant against Rimington award candidate Adam Spieker; A&M cornerbacks Danny Gorrer and Jordan Peterson against Missouri's wide receivers; A&M free safety Devin Gregg against Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel. When the Aggies have the ball: Forget about everything else, the winner of this match-up will probably be the winner of the game. Simply put, something must give. Missouri is the the 10th best rush defense in the country (#2 Big 12) - A&M the 13th best rush offense (#2 Big 12). The Tigers 11th in total defense - the Aggies 22nd in total offense. Missouri 8th in scoring defense - A&M 13th in scoring offense. Missouri has allowed 1 rushing touchdown all year - A&M has 20. An interesting twist to the numbers game is the Missouri defense giving up an average of 44 yards/game on the ground to their out of conference opponents while allowing the Big 12 schools (CU and Tech) to average 131 - and that's with the Red Raiders throwing 61 passes in last weekend's game. All things even, who wants it more? Seriously, I think it's as simple as that. I said last week when the Aggies faced a similar situation against Kansas (the Jayhawks had been good against the run the last 2 years) that the match-up was not as critical as the mindset of A&M....I thought the Aggies needed to execute the offense, eliminate turnovers and not have a bunch of silly mistakes in order to be successful. Well, the Ags moved the ball against Kansas when the mistakes were at a minimum and the drives stalled when penelties played a part. I see it no different this weekend. In fact, that will probably be my position for the entire year. I don't think anyone, yes you heard that right - anyone - will be able to stop the A&M rushing attack if the A&M front comes ready to play. How will they react this weekend, however, after coming out on the winning end of a close game against Kansas? I still believe in these kids and their one game at a time attitude. Advantage TEXAS A&M Key Match-ups: A&M running backs Jorvorskie Lane, Courtney Lewis and Michael Goodson against Missouri LB Marcus Bacon. A&M offensive tackles against Missouri DE Brian Smith. Special teams - other intangibles: At first glance, if there is one area that Missouri appears vulnerable it would be special teams. Net punting ranks #101 with an average of 31.68 yards/kick. Kick return average is 58th compared to A&M's 3rd. You would think that the Ags have the advantage. However, anyone that has watched the Aggies on special teams knows that giving the edge to A&M is a dangerous proposition, especially if you are trying to develop a reputation for knowing what you're talking about. A win Saturday would give Missouri only their 3rd 7-0 start in their 116 years of football. Gary Pinkel has won 14 of his last 19 games, and Missouri has yet to trail in a game this season, winning by an average of 22.3 points per game. Those are sure signs that the Tigers are not losing the intangibles category very often, if at all. I'd pick Missouri as holding the edge in kicks from placement and the Aggies in punting. Coaching is a wash. Adavantage EVEN PREDICTION: This game is basically a draw. Both teams will play with confidence and have the necessary talent to score on the other. I don't think this A&M offense can be stopped if they're up to the task...and playing at Kyle Field should give them an advantage defensively. But after last week's success (following the disappointment of the week before), is this Aggie team capable of playing up to its abilities? I think that's the over-riding question of the day. Additionally, it was obvious at the end of the Kansas game that there were a number of nagging injuries which I think can sometimes make it more difficult to mentally prepare for the following week. Missouri is a tough opponent as is, so if there is any slip on the toughness and preperation side then it could be curtains for A&M. I'm going to continue going with this team, however - at least as it relates to being ready - until they prove otherwise. Texas A&M 28 - Missouri 27 |