Baylor Preview

Texas A&M vs. Baylor - October 28th, 6:00PM @ Waco, Texas

Is anything ever easy in Aggieland?

The punch to the gut by Texas Tech was followed by another shock to the system, a closing-minute, season- saving victory in
Lawrence. And then there was last weekend's overtime, heart-stopping affair in Stillwater. If you're an A&M fan, the closest thing to
sanity was the come-from-behind, six point win over high-flying Missouri at Kyle Field.

Can we please stop and catch our breath?

Not if the recent past is any indication….The Aggies' last trip to Waco resulted in an overtime loss (35-34), the Bears' first over A&M
in almost 20 years. Last year's game was another overtime battle that saw Chad Schroeder and Reggie McNeal convert critical
fourth down plays during a 17-play, 86-yard drive that ended on Todd Pegram's 25-yard field goal with less than a minute remaining
in regulation…….

Ok, I'll stop. Just remember to bring the Rolaids.

When Baylor has the ball:

Maybe the Bears had to use up all of their magic last weekend? Baylor QB Shawn Bell threw for a school-record 394 yards and five
touchdowns, leading the Bears to a 36-35 come-from-behind victory over Kansas in Waco. Bell, the Big 12's Offensive Player of the
Week, found his favorite targets - Trent Shelton and Dominique Ziegler - with two of his touchdown passes as BU stormed back
from an 18-point, fourth quarter deficit. The two senior wide-outs combined to catch 13 passes for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns on
the night and that's been the story for much of the season. Shelton leads the team (2nd Big 12) with 88 receiving yards per game,
Ziegler 64.7 (7th Big 12), forming what could be the best 1-2 combination in the Big 12 conference. Baylor ranks second to Texas
Tech in passing with almost 300 yards per game. The Bears are the league's worst unit on the ground, however, averaging only
42.5. Just like with any spread team, though, the running game may not be the focus but it can't be ignored. The Bears turn to 6'3"
236 pound RB Paul Mosely when they elect to keep it on the ground, and just last week Mosely had one of his better games of the
year, averaging over 9 yards per carry against the Jayhawks. Though Baylor ranks only 9th in scoring and total offense, I don't think
this is particularly a good match-up for A&M. I think the Aggies must be able to pressure Bell with their front 4 and will likely need
help from the offense in order to stay off the field and bring home the victory. Baylor has allowed 22 sacks on the year, but A&M is
among the worst in the conference (10th) at getting to the quarterback. If the A&M DE's are able to pressure up-front then I think this
could swing this category in the Aggies' direction. One positive for A&M is that the Baylor offense has not been very consistent on a
short field and is among the worst (8th) at converting inside the red zone, while the Aggies rank 1st in the conference. I'm going to
give the edge to Baylor on this side of the ball simply because the game is in Waco and I don't really think the match-up of Baylor's
offense vs. A&M's defense favors the Aggies. Advantage BAYLOR

Key Match-Ups: A&M defensive ends Chris Harrington, Michael Bennett and Cyril Obiozor against Baylor offensive tackles
Travis Farst and Jason Smith. A&M cornerbacks Jordan Peterson and Danny Gorrer against Baylor wide receivers Trent
Shelton and Dominique Ziegler.

When A&M has the ball:

Baylor has the worst rush defense in the Big 12 conference and a ranking of 82nd nationally, allowing 150.4 yards per game. A&M is
the best in the conference and 9th nationally at running the football, averaging just over 203 yards a contest. Ball game!! Not so fast
my friend. In a typical game, I think that would be a solid line of reasoning, but this is not a normal game, at least not for Baylor.
Defensive coordinator Gary Darnell has stated repeatedly that defense is all about attitude and intensity and you can rest assured
that the Bears will bring that with them on Saturday. I don't know why, but Baylor - like Texas Tech - views this game as their bowl
game of the season. Additionally, the last two years has given BU a BIG dose of confidence that it can play with and beat A&M. Add
to that the fact that this game is being played in Waco, and that both teams are 3-1 in the Big 12's South Division, and you can feel
the concern. Speaking of bowls, the Bears are in contention and will need to win two of their remaining four games to qualify. A win
against A&M would make that goal a very real possibility - losing it would place Baylor squarely behind the eight ball, jeopardizing
their #1 stated goal on the season. I don't believe there's any real reason to apply statistical data to this category. Baylor comes up
short in just about every area, but will the Aggies match Baylor's intensity for the full 60 minutes? If we could figure that one out I think
we would be much closer to picking the winner. Look for the Bears to stack the line in order to try and dictate. The Aggies are
probably too talented in too many spots for Baylor to overcome, but I think it's important that the Aggies approach this game as they
would any other - use their weapons take advantage of what the defense gives. I think they will. Advantage TEXAS A&M

Key Match-Ups: The A&M offensive line against the Baylor defensive line.

Special Teams and Other Intangibles:

Baylor is the most penalized team in the league. The Bears rank last in the Big 12 in kick coverage while the Aggies are among the
national leaders in kickoff returns. The Baylor defense ranks second only to Texas at creating turnovers (22), but the Aggies are
giving up fewer (10) than anyone else in the league. Baylor rallied last week against Kansas, scoring 19 points in the final 9:22. A
character building win, no doubt, but A&M and Stephen McGee have cornered the market in that department. "Oh no, there was
never any doubt, and there's never been any doubt all year long," McGee said when asked if the confidence wavered prior to last
weekend's comeback. The leadership on this A&M team is real and they should definitely match the gritty determination that Baylor
has exhibited the last two seasons! Advantage TEXAS A&M

Prediction:

The last two games in this series should make it obvious - Guy Morriss has significantly narrowed the gap between these two
programs since his arrival in Waco. The overall series ledger may read 63-30-9 A&M, and the Aggies may have lost only one game
to Baylor since 1985, but this one should no longer be considered a mismatch. In fact, prior to A&M's run over the last 20 years,
Baylor had a run or two of their own - winning 6 of the 8 games (1 tie) between 1978 and 1985 and compiling a 12-10-1 mark
against the Aggies between 1963 and 1986. Before you mention it, that 1985 A&M team won the SWC conference championship
and finished 6th in the nation. And in 1986, Kevin Murray had to rally A&M from a 17-point, 1st-quarter deficit in order to win 31-30.
This game - like the last two - could be tight. If the Aggies can establish a running game like they did in the second half against Tech
then a comfortable win is possible. However, when you look at the improvement in the Baylor program and consider the location
where the game is being played then you can certainly understand why one would hesitate. Factor in Baylor's desire to always win
this game and the outcome becomes even more difficult to predict. The advantages A&M has on paper over Baylor are obvious,
and the character of this team is something that can't be denied. I see no reason to buck the trend now and will stick with Stephen
McGee and the Aggies.