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Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma - November 4th - 7:00 p.m. @ Kyle Field (ABC TV) 35-31 (OU); 30-26 (A&M); 42-35 (OU) ….Those are the last three scores between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Adding that up reveals an average score of 34-32 in OU's favor, beginning with the Sooner come-back win in November of 2000. ESPN's College Gameday made an appearance for that nail-biter in 2000 and they'll return again this coming Saturday when the Sooners and Aggies battle it out for what currently would be second position in the Big12 South. For the Aggies, it's all in front of them. Win the next two at home - Oklahoma and Nebraska - and they will play (most likely Texas) for the Big12 South Championship on November 24th. When reviewing the last two home losses against the Sooners (2000 and 2004), it's painfully obvious that those games would have been A&M wins had it not been not for turnovers. In 2004, despite a 21-14 halftime lead, A&M lost the turnover battle (3-0) and eventually came up on the short end, 42-35. And in the 2000 game against #1 ranked and eventual national champion Oklahoma, the Aggies led 31-21 before Torrance Marshall's interception and return for a touchdown sealed the Aggies' fate. Turnovers are a killer, no doubt. Every coaching staff in America tries to guard against them. When they occur - especially against a quality opponent like Oklahoma - it almost always signals a loss for the team coming out on the wrong end. Though A&M has been very good under Coach Dennis Franchione at protecting the football, the critical mistakes at critical times against Oklahoma have turned what looked like sure A&M wins into very tough losses. Do the Aggies turn the tables on OU this time around? When the Sooners have the ball: When Adrian Peterson went down for the season (broken collarbone), many A&M fans believed the Sooners suddenly became vulnerable, but junior tailback Allen Patrick has had other ideas. Opinions began to shift when the junior from Independence C.C. made his first career start against Colorado and rushed for 110 yards on 35 carries against a Buff defense ranked 9th nationally against the run. Patrick, listed at 6' 0" 190, is big, strong and fast. Last week against Missouri, the new kid on the block did it again, rushing 36 times for 162 yards in the Sooners' 26-10 victory over the Tigers. As the 71 carries from Patrick would indicate, there really is nothing fancy about what Oklahoma is doing. They're simply lining up and whipping people at the point of attack. Would their approach change for this week? It shouldn't. I'm convinced the Sooners will almost surely try and control the clock in the hope of accomplishing two very important tasks -- reducing turnovers and taking what is likely to be an over-flow A&M crowd out of the game. As with most weeks, the Aggies MUST stop the run if they're going to be successful. If A&M falls short in this critical area against the Sooners then the game will be over.....have success and they'll likely stand a very real chance of taking this one to the bank. The Sooners start three true sophomores and one true freshman - Trent Williams of Longview, Texas - on the offensive line. What was initially thought to be a weakness may turn out to be a team strength. Of the nine players who have seen action, all but one has at least two years of eligibility remaining. Quarterback Paul Thompson, who moved from WR last season, has also raised his level of play, completing 60.9% of his passes and eliminating interceptions the last two games. Advantage - EVEN. Key Match-ups: The Oklahoma Offensive line against the A&M defensive line; Oklahoma junior running back Patrick Allen against A&M LB Justin Warren. When the Aggies have the ball: Flip the page and it reads the same. Just like OU, the Aggies would like to control the clock, minimize turnovers and win the game at the point of attack. Unlike the Sooners, however, I think the Aggies are more diversified and capable of exploiting OU on defense by varying their approach if one area happens to be shut down. The Aggies can spread the field and go to 5-wides just as easily as they can line up and play smash-mouth football. As Martellus Bennett proved last week, a safety in single coverage is no match for a 6'7" tight end in open space. In OU's case, if you stop the running game then you've made large strides in slowing them down. Additionally, the Sooners had difficulty containing Stephen McGee and the option game last year as the Aggies rushed for 292 yards on 44 attempts (6.64 per carry). The Aggies may have caught OU off-guard as it was McGee's first real action of the season, but this year there will be a new focus, I'm sure, on slowing down that particular phase of A&M's offense -- setting up what could be the potential for big plays vertically in the passing game. OU definitely has speed and play-making ability defensively, and is among the best at creating turnovers, but what will happen if A&M elects to pound it right at them? The Sooners have the best defense - total and scoring - in the Big 12 conference, 3rd against the run, while the Aggies have the best rush offense in the conference and 4th overall. There is not a team on the schedule that has been able to stop A&M. The Sooners and their speed on defense would probably come the closest, but I think A&M will be able to get yards and hang at least 21 points on the Sooners. Advantage - TEXAS A&M. Key Match-Ups: Running backs Jorvorskie Lane, Michael Goodson and Stephen McGee against Oklahoma linebackers Rufus Alexander and Zack Latimer. A&M tight end Martellus Bennett against Oklahoma SS Reggie Smith. Special Teams - Other Intangibles: This game is a statistically a dead heat. Every item you compare has the Sooners and Aggies virtually neck and neck. Considering recent A&M/OU results, turnover margin would have to be the one area that should receive attention, and the closeness of that category mirrors all the rest. A&M ranks 4th in the conference at +.44 per game and the Sooners 5th at +.25. This will be Bob Stoops' 100th game at Oklahoma where he is 81-18 overall and 6-1 against A&M. OU leads the overall series against the Aggies 14-10, while A&M holds the edge 5-2 in games played at Kyle Field. That number is exactly why, in my opinion, A&M gets the edge in this category. That 5-2 record could easily be 7-0 had the Aggies protected the football, something they've been very good at doing under Coach Dennis Franchione. Throw in the fact that McGee is wise beyond his years when it comes to protection of the football and you have the key ingredients for success. The A&M crowd will be geared up for this one more than any in recent memory and that is always a better than 3 point advantage for the Aggies. Advantage TEXAS A&M PREDICTION: As mentioned above, this is a statistical dead-heat. The winner will most likely be the team that best protects the football. This is going to be an old-fashioned, who wants it more type of football game. If the Aggies win the battle on the ground while minimizing turnovers then they'll win the game. They need to stay in it early and must be able to stop the OU run game in order to be successful. I'm picking that they will. TEXAS A&M 27 - OKLAHOMA 24 Oklahoma Depth Chart Oklahoma Roster Texas A&M Depth Chart Texas A&M Roster |