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Montana State: Saturday, September 1st - 6:00p.m. @ Kyle Field "Who is Montana State?" Check out any internet message board and pull up a thread involving a discussion of Texas A&M's 2007 football schedule and you'll probably see this question, or a variation of it, being asked. And quite honestly, it's a legitimate inquiry. Other than knowing the mascot, a Bobcat along with the realization that the Aggies' first opponent must reside in Montana - Bozeman to be exact - what's really to know? Montana State is a member of the Big sky conference and compiled an overall record of 8-5 in 2006, losing in the quarterfinal round of the NCAA Division 1-AA playoffs to Appalachian State, 38-17. There's a new head coach, Rob Ash from Drake University. 13 starters off the 2006 opening day depth chart - six on offense, seven on defense - return and a stockpile of lettermen with experience make up the travel squad. In fact, prior to former coach Mike Kramer's departure, he said, "I've never seen depth like this on one of my teams. I've never had this kind of quality depth, ever, as a head coach." Three of the returning starters - defensive lineman Aaron Papich and linebackers Bobby Daly and Epikopo King - are preseason all conference picks. There are other items of interest but the most important occurred about this time a year ago, a 19-10 whipping of the Colorado Buffaloes - in Boulder - to begin the 2006 season. "Yea, but Colorado was horrible last year." Ok, I'll give you that, the Buffs did have a little trouble scoring during Dan Hawkins' first season, but look a little deeper into the archives and you'll see where Montana State played another Big 12 opponent off their feet to begin 2005…. QB Donovan Woods of Oklahoma State threw a 3rd quarter touchdown pass to his brother D'Juan Woods and the Cowboys - in Stillwater - scored the only points of the second half to slip by the Bobcats, 15-10. That's two Big 12 opponents in consecutive years; One win, one close loss and only 25 points allowed by the Montana State defense. Don't misunderstand, this isn't an attempt to prepare you for a nail-biter, but as the scores above would indicate, parity does exist in college football and it seems as if close games are the norm rather than the exception…..especially in opening games of the season. And instead of making the all-too-common mistake of picking a game based largely on name, or lack there of in this case, I prefer on-field results as a more practical measure in formulating an opinion. Montana State offense versus Texas A&M defense: The Bobcats return two very capable and experienced quarterbacks who both saw extensive action under center last season. Corey Carpenter, the opening day starter a year ago, and Jack Rolovich, a 2005 transfer from Hawaii, will head up first-year head coach Rob Ash's new offensive system. It appears as if Rolovich may be the front-runner to claim the starter's spot as he was 15-22 for 253 yards and a touchdown in the Bobcats first fall scrimmage. Running back Ervin Groves was lost to injury during the off-season, but Aaron Mason rushed for 144 yards on 19 carries in the fall scrimmage. Receiver Michael Jefferson, who had one of the top five receiving seasons in school history, has been lost to graduation and the Bobcats are looking for go-to players at the position. Derek Green, Tyler Lulay, Deon Tolliver and Josh Lewis are the leading candidates to fill those roles. The offensive line has holes to fill as starting right guard Louis Saucedo and back-up tackle Adam DeCock have left the team to focus on academics. The core of the unit, however, returns with center Jim Verlanic and left tackle Peder Jenson maintaining their positions. On offense, with a new coach and a new "spread" system, it's difficult to know exactly what the Montana State approach will be. But after looking at the statistics from the first scrimmage - 55% pass versus 45 % run - I would think the Bobcats realize they can't come into Kyle Field and produce huge chunks of rushing yardage. I'd look for a relatively balanced approach, but one where the offense tries to mix it up on first down in an attempt to try and keep the Aggies off-balance. It may take a few series' for A&M to get a feel for the game and to adjust to what Montana State is attempting to do, but look for the Aggie defense to come out with an attitude and control the game, specifically in the second half. Advantage: Texas A&M Texas A&M offense versus Montana State defense: After evaluating the various strengths of Montana State and factoring in the past game results versus common opponents, it's pretty obvious that the match-up in this category will determine who takes charge early in the game. Montana State does have three returning all-conference players in the front seven and the Bobcats played solid in the games versus Colorado and Oklahoma State, but this is the Aggies' strength and a category they should win easily. While the Wrecking Crew may have an early adjustment period in coming to grips with what they're facing, the A&M offense should be in charge from the first snap. If there's a question mark on the Bobcat defense it's at safety, so Stephen McGee should have a big game and Martellus Bennett and Joey Thomas could find mismatches in the middle of the field. I'd expect several long runs from Michael Goodson as the Bobcat safeties try and sneak up to stop the run and look for Jorvorskie Lane to pound away at them in the end. Advantage: Texas A&M Special Teams - Other Intangibles: The Aggies have the edge here simply because of the better talent distribution throughout the roster. With the new kick rules the more established programs should have a distinct advantage in kick returns and kick coverage to begin the game and following scores. The field position advantage following kicks should mean the deeper, more established programs can keep the smaller programs looking for the upset at a disadvantage. Montana State also has a new coach and there will be significant adjustments they'll have to make throughout the course of the game. Kyle Field is a HUGE disadvantage for any visiting team and much more of one for a team with a talent disadvantage and a new coach. Advantage: Texas A&M Prediction: The Aggies may take a quarter or so to get rolling in this one but we're talking about an A&M team here that should be contending for the Big 12 championship when all is said and done. The Aggies are just too powerful an opponent and this game will be an uphill climb for Montana State all day long. During the off-season, many Aggie fans have been clamoring for more production out of the passing game and you may get it on September 1st. Stephen McGee should have a big game and the Aggie offense should be able to do as it chooses. Texas A&M 45 - Montana State 13 |