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A Must Win There are times during the course of the season when your team simply needs a win, the score and how it was accomplished really doesn't matter much, if at all; there are others where your team can't afford a loss or you might find yourself altering your goals and playing for something other than that which you had originally intended; and then there's the high profile game against a well-known opponent in front of a national TV audience - like last Thursday night at the Orange Bowl in Miami - where a win becomes extremely important because it not only defines your team (sometimes to your team), but it also helps (or hurts) in giving the nation an indication of where you rank as a program. And there are yet others - like this coming Saturday versus Baylor - where you simply MUST WIN, or else….. Last Thursday, the game against Miami was supposed to be Texas A&M's coming out party. Former coach Lou Holtz mentioned during ESPN's pre-game broadcast that the team with the better running game would win - and he picked A&M, "BIG." That prediction was consistent with the common theme heard prior to the season - and repeated continuously by many players, fans, media and coaches alike - that the Aggies were experienced, confident and had starters returning at virtually every position; the offense was physical and explosive; the defense, with a thicker, more in-depth playbook, was going to be more aggressive and looking to improve upon last season's acceptable marks; and, more importantly, the depth chart was finally filled with players that coach Dennis Franchione had recruited to A&M. It was widely speculated that the attitude, ability and leadership characteristics of those players would help to elevate the Aggies to even greater heights (not necessarily record) than that which was seen during the 9-4 run of a season ago. Based upon how close the Aggies were in 2006 (see 3rd and 2 versus OU), all were hopeful that this A&M team would make a serious run at the Big 12 championship. The players felt it; the coaches obviously believed it and the fans bought into it. The Miami game had been circled and provided the perfect opportunity for A&M to show the world just how far they'd come. It was the perfect chance to prove that the bold preseason predictions were in-deed accurate. In turn, the Aggies were facing a Miami team with a new head coach and one which had struggled in recent years, specifically offensively, to live up to its lofty reputation. The table was set, but the Aggies - once again - busted! While not a mortal blow, the 34-17 loss to Miami - at the very least - should serve as a wake-up call to this team and its coaches. Though the Canes did field one of the better returning defenses in the country, the Aggie offense never made it out of first gear. The mighty A&M running game, averaging just over 296 yards/game, was stymied and held in check. And the passing game, as has been the case for a majority of the snaps thus far this season, was rendered inept. The defense didn't fair much better as Miami quarterback Kyle Wright (21-26 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns) successfully converted on five consecutive 3rd-downs and marched Miami down the field on an 18-play, 80 yard touchdown drive to open the game - and eventually a 24-0 halftime lead. Now the attention, or what's left of it, shifts to the game that shows up next on the schedule - Baylor. If you're a coach, player or fan of Texas A&M you don't anticipate losing to Baylor, something that has only happened once (a 35-34 overtime loss under Dennis Franchione during the 2004 season) since 1985. If this game isn't one that falls into the MUST-WIN category then I don't know what one is. This is the first of eight Big 12 conference games and it's against Baylor, the perennial doormat of the South Division. More importantly, this game follows the embarrasing exhibition in Miami and this team, in the worst way, needs to regain the swagger it felt at the beginning of the season if it expects to contend for anything other than a bowl game in Shreveport, Louisiana. And it's an absolute necessity for Coach Fran because, if for no other reason, he's in the 5th year of his contract and competing with his own players. And yes, it must be pretty and it would be nice if it were convincing……… You can say or spin it however you'd like, but the only way to alter whatever it is someone thinks about you or whatever it is you may be feeling about yourself - and don't kid yourself, the Miami game will have quite a few questioning where they stand - is by doing it on the field of play. A solid, well-executed and convincing win to open Big 12 play is the only way to rebuild the psyche of this team and help to prepare it for the tougher games that follow. Anything less and it could spell disaster for what was otherwise considered a potentially great season… Texas A&M offense versus the Baylor defense: The Aggies' offensive line, once considered to be among the best and most experienced units in the country at the start of the season, suffered through as poor a performance as you'll see against the Miami Hurricanes and their stout defensive front. The speed and athletic ability of the Canes not only stalled the powerful Aggie rushing attack, but the intense pressure put on Stephen McGee meant the Aggies' passing game wasn't enjoying much success, either. It all starts up-front, and now, with the start of Big 12 play beginning this weekend against Baylor, that same o-line - currently without the services of OT Yemi Babalola (apparent shoulder injury suffered against Miami) - will have an opportunity to rectify the situation and put the poor performance against Miami behind them. Expect them to be up to the challenge. I look for the Aggies to show a number of different looks offensively this weekend. Baylor will probably try to pressure and confuse the Aggie offensive line just like the Hurricanes did, but while Miami did it with athletic ability, Baylor, who plays an eight-man front for a majority of their defensive snaps, will look to do it with numbers. The Aggies should be able to consistently move the ball on the Bears, but they may have to get out of their comfort zone to do it. I'd look for A&M to spread out Baylor in an attempt to isolate the Bear athletes against the A&M athletes in one-on-one situations, rather than lining up and attempting to slug it out against an outnumbered, 8-man front. This will mean that Stephen McGee and the A&M passing game (specifically Martellus Bennett) will have to be sharp and execute in areas we've only seen successfully implemented against Louisiana-Monroe. Jorvorskie Lane (or Michael Goodson) in a one-back set, with 1 TE and 3 receivers may be a popular formation for the Ags on Saturday - and they should enjoy success as long as the offensive line comes to play. Advantage: Texas A&M Baylor offense versus Texas A&M's defense: Well, here we go again - a spread offense with 4 and 5 wide receivers. How will the A&M defense perform? Will they sit back, keep everything underneath and try to make Baylor drive the length of the field without making errors, or will they occasionally change their look and attempt to pressure the new Baylor quarterback? Sophomore Blake Szymanski has already thrown for 1200 + yards thru 4 games this season and has two 400-yard passing games with 14 touchdowns to his credit. I guess if you're looking on the bright side then you can say that this provides the perfect opportunity for A&M to work on similar situations that they'll be seeing during the course of the next three weeks. If you're a pessimist, then you're expecting Szymanski to repeat, if not eclipse, his yearly averages. I don't really know what to expect, but the numbers certainly don't appear to favor the Aggies. The A&M defensive approach coupled with what they've been allowing through the air would make this seem as if Baylor is the team with the clear advantage. A&M certainly has the better athletes, but this scheme is not something the Aggies have been good at defending. The concerning thing is this - though A&M has faired quite well in games of this type (save Tech), it's usually dependent upon the Aggies being able to consistently run the football and control the clock, keeping the out-manned opponent with the high-flying circus-act off the field. What happens if Baylor elects to stack and actually slows that phase (run) of the A&M attack and ends up getting its hands on the football more frequently? This is one of those put-up or shut-up types of games for the A&M defense. Until they actually line up and stop someone with this type of offense then it's not being objective to give A&M the advantage. We've been hearing how the look will be different, more aggressive and more complex for opponents. If it isn't successful against Baylor, then just exactly who is it going to stop? Advantage: Baylor Special Teams - Other Intangibles: The Aggies have the advantage in just about every phase of the game under this category. Simply put, Baylor doesn't recruit as well as the Aggies and therefore doesn't possess near the athletes to make a difference on special teams that A&M does. Baylor's field goal kicker, Shea Brewster, is 2 of 6 on the season versus A&M Matt Szymanski who is 7 of 10. Justin Brantley averages 42.1 yards per punt versus Baylor Derek Epperson at 37.8. Baylor averages 17.4 yards per kick return versus the Aggies' 23.1 - and on and on…Further, no matter what Bear head coach Guy Morriss might say to pump up his troops, the Aggies own this series and will play the game this weekend at Kyle Field Advanatge: Texas A&M PREDICTION: If you've spent much time on the internet lately it's not that hard to gain a feel for the pain being felt by the main-stream A&M fan. After expectations were elevated to start the year, it's now feared and fairly obvious - at least for many of those posting - that their heightened dreams of the preseason are not likely to be met. OU is on a roll and the A&M games haven't come close to going off as planned. Many fans are simply beside themselves and looking for answers in the 5th year of Coach Fran's program. That level of unrest would almost certainly bring about a sense of urgency on the coaching staff. Do the players feel that same way? Can they come out with a fire in their belly and right themselves after the Miami game, or will it be an uninspired hangover and another close contest against an over-matched opponent? Answer that question and you could go a long way in defining how this game might go. For me, there's one thing I've never questioned with regard to this team - and that's their level of determination and willingness to give what it takes to succeed. I fully expect to see an A&M team similar to the one we saw in the UL-M game following that exhausting effort against Fresno State. A&M never punted, scored on 9 of their 10 offensive possessions and accumulated 547 yards of total offense. If the Aggies come to play, and I expect they will, then you should see that type of performance. Texas A&M 41 - Baylor 20 |