|
|
Texas A&M vs Texas Tech - Saturday 2:30 pm. (ABC) @ Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas Texas A&M owns a 34-30-1 overall edge in the series against Texas Tech, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the ledger from the last 10 or so years. Until just recently, the Aggies and their fans have been very passive in their view of this rivalry and have looked upon it as nothing more than another game on the schedule. The Tech fans, on the other hand, circle it on their calendars at the beginning of every season and approach it as if it were their Super Bowl. And their intense desire to beat the Aggies is clearly visible in the results - A&M has gone winless in West Texas since a 31-6 victory in 1993, a span of 6 games and 13 seasons. Tech owns an 8-3 mark against the Aggies since the formation of the Big 12 conference and head coach Dennis Franchione is 1-3 against the Red Raiders since arriving in Aggieland five years ago. Another disturbing trend for A&M as they look to go 3-0 in the Big 12 for the first time since 2004 are the last two encounters in Lubbock - a 56-17 pasting in 2005 and a 59-28 dismantling in 2003. Last year, after holding Tech scoreless for the entire second half, the Aggies lost a 31-27 heart-breaker at Kyle Field, as QB Graham Harrell delivered a 37-yard touchdown strike to wide receiver Robert Johnson with 26 seconds left in the game. The recent past is clear and irrefutable evidence that the Aggies will most definitely have their hands full on Saturday, but if A&M plans to stay in first place of the Big 12 South it's not just the ho-hum mindset they'll have to overcome. In addition to series history, Tech's recent accomplishments on the field won't make life any easier for the Aggies. The Red Raiders have amassed 3078 yards passing, are averaging 52.5 points per game and have punted only 11 times in 6 games this season. Questions about Tech's true strength, however, surface when it's understood that a majority of their numbers have come against inferior competition. As an example, the Red Raiders won by 14 over UTEP after trailing (at home) 21-7 in the first quarter. The Miners had scored 31 points and accumulated 431 yards of total offense before Tech scored the final 10 points of the game and pulled away, late in the 4th quarter. Probably the more accurate gauge of the Red Raiders' strength occurred about three weeks ago in Stillwater. To open Big 12 play, Tech lost 49-45 to Oklahoma State in an offensive shootout like no other; the Red Raiders ended up allowing 366 yards rushing and 610 total yards to the Cowboys, but accumulated 646 yards passing and 718 total yards of their own. Competition aside, the truth of the matter and probably the chief reason for a majority of A&M's troubles in Lubbock are, in large part, due to the Texas Tech offensive attack. It's as dangerous and difficult to contain as any in the college football today. The first analogy that comes to mind when trying to describe the Tech assault is a bottle rocket - once the fuse is lit there's not going to be much resistance, if any and the rocket usually reaches its destination in a hurry. Add the rabid fan environment (always present for the A&M game) to the ever-present difficulty in maintaining momentum on the road, and you're constantly playing with fire and just a few inches away from blastoff at all times. The best tonic to keep from falling into an explosive situation against Texas Tech is to have a strong running game and to control the clock, limiting the opportunities for the dangerous Red Raider offense. The Aggies were able to accomplish that in the second half of the game last season, as Tech had only 4 second-half possessions (3 punts) and the Aggies controlled the football for 22:27 of the game's 30:00 second half minutes. Can the Aggies control the football and keep the momentum away from Texas Tech this weekend? And can they do it for four quarters and the full 60 minutes? Answer those questions and you're sure to have your winner......... Texas Tech offense versus the Texas A&M's defense: In the understatement of the year, the passing game accounts for 73% of Texas Tech's offensive output. Junior QB Graham Harrell is the trigger-man and the key to Tech's aerial attack. The 6'3" 205 pound signal-caller from Ennis is arguably the best that Tech has put under center since head coach Mike Leach has been in Lubbock. Harrell has a quick release, understands coverage's and possesses the uncanny knack of finding the open receiver and delivering the football to precise locations under pressure. Forget the blitz; it's rarely effective against the Red Raiders and there have only been 7 registered sacks against their offense all season long. The Aggie defense will attempt to try and keep Tech guessing, off-balance and out of rhythm in their execution. The best approach in trying to accomplish that tall task is to change the look, disguise coverage's and mix in an occasional blitz, all with the goal of keeping Tech underneath and having to execute flawlessly the entire length of the field. You won't stop Texas Tech, but if you can keep them from exploding and scoring points in bunches then you're on the right path to a successful day. I wouldn't look for the Aggies to change much from what we saw in '06……The defense was effective enough in their approach, but the effort was not sustained for a full 4 quarters, as Tech generated half of their offensive output (211 yards) and three consecutive touchdowns in a 5-minute span during the first half. Redshirt-freshman Michael Crabtree (17 touchdowns and 1074 receiving yards) and senior Danny Amendola (4 TD's and 685 yards) are Harrell's favorite targets. Inside receiver Eric Morris (3TD's and 308 yards) is the other player of note. Though it's a small part of Tech's overall plan on offense, when they do decide to go to the ground then running back Shannon Woods (318 yards on 53 attempts) gets the bulk of the carries. Advantage: Texas Tech Texas A&M offense versus the Texas Tech defense: In the second biggest understatement of the year, if the Aggies are to escape Lubbock with a win then they'll need to execute flawlessly on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, the defense needs to slow the Red Raider attack, but the A&M rushing attack is going to have to control the football and keep Tech's offense off the field. It's really that simple. If that happens then A&M has a chance; if it doesn't then A&M - as they have during the past two trips to Lubbock - will be playing with fire and finding themselves on the wrong end of the score. The Aggies, more than any other Big 12 power (OU excluded), are built to have success against Texas Tech. They have the weapons in place to do it, but can they? And can they do it for four quarters with limited turnovers against a unit that will surely be jacked up with energy generated by the home crowd? The Red Raider defense ranks 59th in the country against the run (151.7 yards per game) and 36th overall (337.83 yards per game). While you can't really use the Tech schedule in your evaluation of their offense, you can with respect to their defense….1/3rd (610 yards) of the 2027 yards gained against Texas Tech have come in one ballgame against one quality opponent - Oklahoma State - whom the Aggies beat last weekend. Where would the Red Raiders be statistically if they had played a little tougher schedule? The Aggies will probably try and force-feed prognosticator Jorvorskie Lane early and often, but if Tech jams 9 in the box then I'd look for a similar approach to what we saw in the second half last weekend against OSU. The Aggies can't afford to take too many chances here and suddenly find themselves behind the chains, but the A&M offense is definitely the better unit in the match between the two. One of the main reasons A&M didn't win the game last season was not the pass at the end of the game, nor the yards generated on offense by Texas Tech, but the fact that A&M didn't convert their red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Sticking it in the end zone this weekend is an absolute must and if the Aggies get within 5 yards of the stripe I can just about guarantee who's getting the football. Advantage: Texas A&M Special Teams - Other Intangibles: Texas Tech doesn't recruit as well as A&M and the Aggies have the better athletes possessing the greater potential of breaking a long kick - i.e. Kerry Franks 99-yard kick return for a touchdown last year - but Tech is somehow always tough in just about every "other" statistical category. Senior Alex Trlica is 4-6 on field goal attempts and freshman Jonathan LaCour averages 42.5 per punt. It can be argued that Mike Leach has been the better coach since he's been in Lubbock. Texas Tech has a - 0 - margin on turnovers while the Aggies are +7. I'm giving the edge to the Red Raiders because of the home field advantage which they've enjoyed the last several years. Advantage: Texas Tech PREDICTION: The Aggies have not enjoyed the better part of this series for the past 13 years. Whether it's a bounce off the right upright or a Hail-Mary to end the game, Tech seemingly always finds a way to come out on top. It's been correctly mentioned in the past that the Aggies haven't always matched Tech's intensity, but that's not been the case for the last several years. The Aggies have definitely come to play, but Tech has simply been the better team. They've certainly had the better scheme. Running back Jorvorskie Lane predicts a win!! Some have given the J-Train a hard time for his bold stance, but you can forget about that....his comments won't fire Tech up anymore than they already are. Though this cuts against the grain of common thought, I'm walking the limb with the big fella. A&M is the stronger, more physical team and this is the year they punch 'em in the mouth and take it to the house. Texas A&M 34 Texas Tech 31 |