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Texas A&M vs Arkansas State - Saturday 6:00 pm @ Kyle Field, College Station, Texas 41-7; 52-10; 38-14; 48-13.....All scores recently taken from threads on A&M internet message boards. One of those predicitions could in fact end up being accurate, but we'd better take a little closer look at history and a few other items before jumping to a hasty decision. Texas A&M is 3-0 all-time versus Arkansas State. Each game has been played in College Station with the most recent being a 26-11 Texas A&M win during the 2003 season. None of the other prior contests against the Red Wolves - formerly known as the Indians - has ever proven easy, either. Prior to A&M's championship clubs of the mid-80's and during the non-conference portion of their 1984 schedule, the Aggies escaped with a 22-21 win @ Kyle Field. Likewise, Arkansas State, who was only 5-7 overall in 2007, made some of college football's better programs - Texas, Tennessee and Southern Mississippi - sweat a little before eventually losing in the end. The Longhorns had fewer first downs (26 to 23), fewer offensive yards (397 to 340) and needed the benefit of a generous onsides kick call before securing the win, 21-13. In addition to the type of opponent ASU has been, it should also be noted that the Red Wolves started several young but extremely talented offensive players in 2007. Junior quarterback Corey Leonard, a Davey O'Brien semifinalist, and junior running back Reggie Arnold, who ammassed 1060 yards rushing before being named All-Sun Belt Conference for the second concecutive year, started as sophomores and should be more than capable of improving upon what are already solid, upper-class offensive numbers. ASU has 5 starters and a host of experienced and talented newcomers returning to a defense that led the Sun Belt conference in total defense, finishing second in many of the other major (scoring, pass and rush) categories. Three-year letterman Ben Owens is on the Butkus watch list at MLB and All-Sun Belt Conference performer, DE Alex Carrington, returns for his junior season. Special teams were a team strength in 2007 and the Red Wolves return all of their key players in '08; Senior punter Brett Schrable averaged a respectable 41.7 yards per punt (37th nationally) and junior kicker Josh Arauco made good on 15 field goals and all 34 of his extra points. Return man Brandon Thompkins had a record-setting year (both ASU and Sun Belt Conference marks) with 1062 return yards, and senior Kevin Jones averaged 11.4 yards per punt return, ranking 22nd nationally. There were, however, significant losses to graduation and this could very well be the key to an A&M victory. ASU will need to replace 4 starters in the offensive line and its entire starting defensive secondary, but, as mentioned above, there are experienced players and talented newcomers who are ready to step up into those critical offensive and defensive positions. Amazingly, offensive left tackle Matt Mandrich returns for his 4th year as a starter. Mandrich, who is a three-time All-Sun Belt selection and on the Lombardi watch list, is one of the best players at his position in the country. Senior linemen Brandon Ciaramitaro and Mark Clemons are being counted on at center and tackle, respectively. And juniors Dominic Padrta and Anthony Jackson are slated to start at the guard positions. Senior conerback Dominique Williams and junior Daylon Walker have both been starters in the past and expected to be solid players at the position. First Team JUCO All-America corner Cordarious Mingo was recruited to play immediately. The biggest loss is at safety where Sun Belt Defensive POY Tyrell Johnson (Minnesota Vikings 2nd round pick) and First Team All-Sun Belt Khayyam Burns were lost. Junior Evan Van Dolah and sophomore M.D. Jennings will try and plug the holes. Texas A&M offense versus the Arkansas State defense: I think A&M is poised to have a very big game here. This isn't the Sun Belt conference, it's the explosive Big 12. Stephen McGee should have a solid if not spectacular start in head coach Mike Sherman's first game as the Aggie head coach. The pro-style variation of the West Coast should present plenty of scoring opportunities for the explosive combination of Mike Goodson and Cyrus Gray. The inexperienced secondary of ASU will not only be exposed to a multiple offense that will give them a variety of looks, but they'll have to defend a number of players who possess the ability to break the big one for a long score. The key for A&M will be to block the ASU defensive ends - Alex Carrington and Brian Flagg - in passing situations and to get a hat on middle linebacker Ben Owens should they choose to run. I think McGee could easily pass for 250 + yards, and Jamie McCoy, Mike Goodson and Cyrus Gray could very well be the key targets. The defensive backfield - particularly the new ASU safeties - are the weakest link and could be in for a long day. The Red Wolves also had to replace both of their interior defensive linemen and NT Khari Mays, who started part-time last season and registered 17 tackles, will be asked to plug the hole when Jorvorskie Lane plows into the middle with one of his key carries of the game. Even though the ASU defense posted good numbers in 2007 and held the potent Texas offense to a paultry 340 yards of total offense, I think A&M is going to have its way on Saturday night. The variation of play calls by A&M mixed with inexperience at critical defensive spots for ASU spells disaster for the Red Wolves in their first game of the season. Key Match-ups: OT's Michael Shumard and Travis Schneider versus DE's Alex Carrington and Brian Flagg. RB's Mike Goodson and Cyrus Gray versus LB's Ben Owens and Javon McKinnon. Advantage: Texas A&M Texas A&M defense versus the Arkansas State offense: Just as the Aggies are capable of putting up big numbers against the ASU defense, the Arkansas State offense has some play-making ability of its own. QB Corey Leonard threw for 2,235 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 547 yards and 5 scores. The special teams phenoms mentioned above - punt returner Kevin Jones (14.7 yards per catch - career) and kick returner Brandon Thompkins (41 catches for 503 yards in '07) - should be Leonard's main targets when he takes to the air. But the bigger piece to the puzzle, and one which the Aggies must solve on Saturday night if they're to have any success in the game, is 5'9" 220 pound running back Reggie Arnold. This explosive little back has gained over 1000 yards rushing in each of his first two seasons at ASU, and the 6.5 yards per carry last season was good for 2nd-best in the country. Arnold won't get many touches through the air, but the middle of A&M's defense could see 6'2" 250 pound All-Sun Belt TE David Johnson. Though I do like ASU's collection of skill, the fired up Aggies shouldn't have much of a problem in Mike Sherman's first game on opening night @ Kyle Field. Add to it that ASU is breaking in a relatively new offensive line and that A&M DC Joe Kines is set on showing the multiplicity and pressure of his new defense, and it makes me think the Aggies will win this match-up --- just not as convincingly as the previous category. Overaggression could lead to the Aggies giving up a couple of easy scores, but I don't see 28 or more being hung on A&M at home, and that's what it will take for Arkansas State to leave College Station with the win. Key Match-ups: QB Corey Leonard versus A&M CB's Danny Gorrer, Jordan Pugh and Arkeith Brown. A&M DE's Michael Bennett, Cyril Obiozor and Amos Gbundblee versus ASU OT's Matt Mandich and Mark Clemons. A&M MLB Matt Featherston versus ASU RB Reggie Arnold. Advantage: Texas A&M Special Teams - Other intangibles: My initial thought here was that ASU might be better in the special teams department, but then I thought of A&M punter Justin Brantly's 44.2 yards per punt average and all of the skill which will be returning punts and kicks for A&M -- and thought better of it. If there's a better punter in the country than Brantly, well, I'd just like to see him. Cyrus Gray will certainly make a name for himself in an A&M uniform before his playing days are done, but the race to glory could come sooner rather than later as a kick returner. Bradley Stephens, Jordan Pugh and Mike Goodson, the choices for Mike Sherman are endless. I do think Brandon Thompkins' return ability offers a serious challenge to the A&M coverage teams and kickers, but they should be more than up to the challenge. Who kicks from placement for A&M? Not sure whether it's Randy Bullock or Richie Bean at this point, but I'm confident that the 65% success rate of ASU's Josh Arauco (15 of 23) can be exceeded. Steve Roberts is an excellent coach for ASU and I expect the Red Wolves to have a solid season in '08, and an even better season in '09, but he won't outcoach Mike Sherman on this night. Advantage: Texas A&M PREDICTION: OK A&M fans on the net, after reviewing the game stats, players, team strengths and weaknesses for both clubs, I think I tend to agree with you, but it won't surprise me if the game turns out closer than what we might be hoping for. Arkansas State is a significantly better opponent than what many may want to admit, and they have the capability of putting up some rather impressive offensive numbers, but the Ags do match-up very favorably with the Red Wolves. I don't see any way A&M loses this game, especially since it's Mike Sherman's first and it's at Kyle Field. ASU will score a few points, but Aggie Nation should leave feeling good about the direction of the program. Texas A&M 38 - Arkansas State 17 |