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Texas A&M @ New Mexico - Saturday, 4:00 pm (Versus) - University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico Under the leadership of head coach Rocky Long New Mexico has been to a bowl game 5 of the last 6 years, including a 23-0 victory over Nevada in last year's New Mexico Bowl. That win on paper may not appear overly impressive, but Nevada entered the contest averaging 36.2 points per game, 489 total yards and had not been shut out in 28 years (a span of 329 games). In addition, Nevada produced 629 yards total offense (426 rushing) in their opener last week against Grambling. This game will not be an easy one for the Aggies. Do I think A&M wins? Yes. Could they lose? Absolutely. If you're thinking of past New Mexico football teams and expecting a blowout, or just looking at last week's score (TCU 26 - New Mexico 3) and thinking this should be an easy A&M win, then you'd probably be better served to just leave the television off. Fact is, close games are more the rule rather than the exception in the current landscape of college football, especially when slight favorites (Ags by 2 1/2) travel to underdog venues. And, more than that, we're talking about a Texas A&M team with a new coach, new schemes and one that must now go to Albuquerque and beat another underrated opponent, this time after a loss. The Lobos are better than what they showed during their 26-3 setback to TCU. The Horned Frogs kicked a 50-yard field goal on their opening drive of the 1st quarter, but it was New Mexico mistakes on the next two possessions and the resulting short field that propelled TCU to the easy victory; A 7-yard shank by first-year punter Adam Miller set up one TCU touchdown, and on the ensuing possession New Mexico quarterback Donovan Porterie - who eventually left the game in the 2nd quarter with a neck injury - threw an interception that was returned to the New Mexico 9-yard line. 16-0 TCU, a score that would hold up for the remainder of the first half and into much of the second. After both teams exchanged second-half field goals, the Horned Frog's wrapped up the 4th quarter scoring as Jeremy Kerley returned a punt 53 yards to the New Mexico 4-yard line. TCU accepted their third major gift of the night and sealed the victory after gaining only 291 yards of total offense. In 2007, New Mexico was one of only three Bowl Subdivision schools to produce a 3000 yard passer (Porterie), a 1000 yard rusher (Rodney Ferguson) and two 1000 yard receivers - Marcus Smith (Baltimore Ravens - 4th round) and Travis Brown (Cincinnati Bengals). Though the receivers have graduated, the quarterback and running back both return. Sound familiar? In addition, the 6'0" 234 pound Ferguson has led the league in rushing each of the last two years. I'm sure that sounds familiar? In many ways New Mexico mirrors A&M's week 1 opponent, Arkansas State. The Lobos, like the Red Wolves, return most of their explosive skill while attempting to replace four starters in the offensive line. Defensively the Lobos play a 3-3-5 alignment and like to pressure the line of scrimmage, hoping to take away the run and force opposing offenses into game-changing mistakes. Last season, New Mexico was extremely effective with their aggressive approach, ranking 13th nationally in total defense and allowing a very respectable 319.9 total yards per game. But while 6'1" 285 pound nose tackle, Wesley Beck (Houston, Tx) returns, the DE's and LB's must all be replaced. Unlike Arkansas State, however, the Lobos' defensive backfield (aside from one safety position) are all back. I know this is a rather large understatement, but, in a general sense, it's an absolute must that A&M control the ground game better than they did last week versus Arkansas State. In fact, I'm basically telling you right now that the winner of this game will likely be the team that runs the football better. After suffering 5 sacks and getting their quarterback injured against TCU, New Mexico will be looking for a sound way to slow the pass rush and give their inexperienced offensive line a chance. A&M ran the ball adequately, especially in the first half against ASU, but the Ags yielded 4 sacks of their own and suffered two critical interceptions during the course of the game. With an inexperienced A&M offensive line working against a stacked, aggressive defensive approach on the road, I'm fairly certain the Aggies would prefer to limit the potential for failure, as well. Though the New Mexico safeties attempt to play an integral part in defending the run, especially the Lobo, hybrid LB-S, New Mexico has 5 new starters in the defensive front. The Aggies will likely try and test this potential weakness very early and really need to have succees if they're going to come away with the victory. I thought Michael Goodson had a nice start to the season last weekend (124 yards rushing), but he could explode this week with several long runs and/or receptions if he can get to space and break containment. This is a HUGE key for A&M. They must establish the run and get Goodson to the corner so that the linebackers and safeties will have to respect and think run first, rather than pinning their ears back and coming after Stephen McGee. A little Goodson success on the edge could open up the passing lanes for McGee, Jamie McCoy and the rest of the A&M receivers. It might also set the table for Jorvorskie Lane or the other fullbacks to get some quality carries before the night is done. RB Rodney Ferguson gained 1,177 yards last year as a junior. New Mexico has seen the film and knows A&M had a difficult time defending the smaller ASU back between the tackles. You can expect the Lobos to test the interior, early and often. It's a must that Kellen Heard and Lucus Patterson have their names called more frequently, as Matt Featherston (16 tackles) can't be expected to carry the entire load. I expected more pressure on the line of scrimmage by A&M linebackers last week, but this could be the game we actually see that gameplan materialize. You know New Mexico will try it, but will A&M? This game is really too close to call, but I do feel that the Aggies will end up getting more big plays and end up having the most consistent success on the ground. That rushing success could lead to even more big plays by McGee and the wide receivers. Player confidence after a week 1 loss to an inferior opponent is a concern, especially since New Mexico will pressure and attempt to exploit the young Aggie offensive line. It's also on the road where pressure can sometimes become even tougher to handle. But I think A&M prevails in the end and moves the record to 1-1 on the season. Texas A&M 24 - New Mexico 20 |